The preparation of plausible economic forecasts and scenarios depends both on the control of economic logic under normal conditions, and on the understanding of the risk elements that could transform a central vision into a less probable alternative vision with a higher socioeconomic cost. Thus, the conceptualization of risks is an exercise linked to dynamics of a social, economic and political nature, which, in turn, are conditioned by the context they are generated in and are at the mercy of eventual catalysts of change. This report proposes a general conceptual framework that explores common views on these determinants in the process of considering the risk environment, analyzing the socioeconomic risks that would affect the central scenario with greater depth and probability, while exploring the geopolitical risks the world is facing.
Insurance