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Economic and Industry Outlook 2022

After an acceleration in the first half of 2021, the global economy slowed due to higher commodity and energy prices, supply chain problems, congested demand for consumer goods to the detriment of services, as well as uncertainty caused by the return to social distancing measures in the face of the new variant of COVID-19. In addition, central banks in emerging countries have begun to tighten monetary policy to control inflation, while in developed markets inflation remains stable in order to continue driving the economic recovery, although it already anticipates a change in trend. The report expects the global economy to head for slower growth than in 2021, around 4.8% in 2022 and 3.6% in 2023, with developed markets taking the lead in closing the output gap over the next few years. Moreover, despite the global economic slowdown and increased uncertainty, increased risk aversion on the part of economic agents as a result of the pandemic will be a major stimulus to demand for insurance, which continues to pose a positive outlook in 2022 for the development of the sector. In addition, the negative effects of the economic reopening on the loss ratio of some lines will tend to be corrected, so the outlook for the profitability of insurance companies continues to be favorable, despite the effect that the rebound in inflation may have in the short term.