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Economic and Sectoral Outlook

Economic and Industry Outlook 2024

The report forecasts that, moving into 2024, geopolitical tensions and other key risks will remain, while monetary policy will enter a phase of moderation pending validation of the effectiveness of the measures implemented. Thus, global economic performance is expected to be weaker than in 2023, with a gradual slowdown in growth that could bottom out in the final stretch of 2024 or early 2025. With regard to inflation, there is a renewed risk that, in the short term, inflation could pick up again as a result of geopolitical issues and less favorable base effects. Thus, global activity is expected to grow by around 2.3% and 2.6% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, while average inflation for these years is forecast at 4.4% and 3.3%, in each case. This environment presents an outlook for the insurance business of moderate growth in business volume, especially for those segments most closely linked to the economic cycle. Nevertheless, it is expected that the profitability of the insurance sector will improve as a result of upward revisions in insurance premiums and moderation in the growth of costs as price increases are brought under control.